gm Anon
First on my list here is a token I’ve been curious about for some time, FEARNFT -
A quick about below, but first some stats via Coingecko:
THE GIST
FEAR NFT is an entrant into the increasingly crowded P2E space. Since release it has added itself to multiple protocols and now exists on MATIC, BSC and ETH. Recently they also partnered with Muon to add efficiencies over their multilayered platform. The building by the Devs is visible and continuous.
FEARs main differentiator is a focus on horror games, a notably absent niche in gaming crypto as of now. Besides that it’s also a gaming studio with multiple already existing releases, vs the standard of pure hype and studios with entirely unreleased games.
The first thing that pops out looking at the stats is that the fully diluted Mcap is massively higher than the total circulating supply at over 6x, and so the first question is “why”? Here’s a look at the cointable taken from the website
And here, the emissions schedule
And I don’t fully have an answer. 24.25% of tokens were to be used as Ecosystem Incentives, however a new token for just that was recently released. More on that later. This seems too generous to the team and private round investors.
The TGE (token generation event) appears to be 5/25/2021. Locked tokens are released over 24 months. From this not easy to read chart (why does everything crypto seem designed to make you to go blind?), advisor and partner releases kick in around month 10 or 11. Or 12. Who can tell. Private rounds unlock fully in month 8. That would bring us right into about the new year before the private round can just completely dump, so depending on macro conditions at the time this is important to note. Any project with a low circulating supply means retail buyers have the potential for being exit liquidity fodder for the teams and private backers when unlocks click into place. Traditionally TradFi IPO unlocks see 20% average sold off when possible. Whether this is true in crypto or not I don’t know, but will try to observe. New blog and all..
4 out of 5 games are from the same gaming studio the Dev team previously worked for, the WhackIt series, while the 5th, Araya comes from outside of the immediate development team being a re-skin of a previously released title on Steam that gained a large following in southeast Asia.
One very positive note is the previous viral success of some of their old non-crypto games
For reference Axie Infinity has 1.8M daily players according to Coindesk. While the wording from the FEAR Whitepaper is confusing (I believe they mean individual plays vs players) as far as crypto goes that’s really pretty good. If they can recreate those numbers in a space as viral as crypto gaming I believe a huge pump would be in order.
While it is impressive to see a company hit the ground running with so many titles, these seem largely to be games designed for mobile/browser and previously created by the team before their entry to crypto. Araya is a great add but was previously released. Horror is a needed niche but the productions so far lack the sticking power of multiplayer games and metaverse productions, the things players invest endless hours into. Is an unreleased game that’s hyped and checks all the boxes worth more than 5 titles that are released and don’t? I’m sure I don’t know.
Influencer backing also seems sorely absent and the company made the mistake of hiring bots to shill online, probably the clumsiest of all marketing tactics. When searching #FEARNFT on twitter you are confronted with little organic chatter and mostly non-native english speakers calling it a great buy.
To complicate the already Everest sized locked tokens, FEAR has also just released $BLOOD, an in game token that gets airdropped pro rata to $FEAR hodlers who don’t have their coins staked. BLOOD is now the in-game token that will dominate the “E” in P2E leaving FEAR around for? What? It’s not a community driven project with governance so it’s not exactly clear why this layer was added on.
The other itch I can’t scratch here is that FEAR announced the acquisition of a gaming company, Evil Twin Games. Googling around I couldn’t find much of anything about an Evil Twin Games. These however are the founders of FEAR
I present to you the Carey Brothers.
I went into Discord to ask if the studio FEAR bought was a studio the founders of FEAR had already owned, or if it was just a wild coincidence that these two horror gaming twins bought a studio called Evil Twin, and got no response. My guess is that it is, and without explicitly stating as much that’s a sort of sophisticated and mild rug (original too!). The retail investors in FEAR essentially paid these guys to buy out their own company. While not appalling by crypto standards it’s not exactly Big Bonus Very Good News territory either. More like a red flag IMHO.
There’s more to say but Anon thinks too many words. Anon no attention span. wat do? buy coin? talk two much. wat DO!
Audience is always first here at Monican Spy, and I would never wish to displease. So,
THE PUNCHLINE
The upsides»
FEAR is the cheapest lowest mkt cap production studio I know of in crypto
They have 5 titles out while most have zero
Focus on Indie games that are easy to produce vs moonshot AAA quality that has yet been proven to _actually_ exist in crypto
Horror is a great niche
Webpage and presentation are professional
Doxxed team with members who actually have gaming backgrounds
ASO has the right tags
Audited with no issues (will try to find the source for which company)
Social media is updated frequently
Constant releases and updates//partnerships
Was on a run-up Alpha to market before the market wide dip and currently 2.33x from ATH; good chance of retrace up if bluer skies prevail.
The downsides»
Huge asymmetry to locked vs unlocked tokens
Tokenomics feel peripheral to game loops, as indeed most titles are not crypto native
Adding more tokens to gameplay which compounds the lopsided distribution
Only 1184 holders, yet again adding risk to distribution
Bad loops. Games don’t have longevity for gameplay and are almost all unoriginal and/or quick and easy productions
Not a popular item on social media//in the space
Not entirely the correct narrative, no community based games
More narrow niche, although that may be a plus
Buy Scale from 1 to 10: 6
Every opportunity exists in the context of all other available investments. Within crypto gaming the expectations for returns are exceptionally high, while for product quality exceptionally low. Within this context I think FEARNFT is an overall buy. The market cap is extremely small, needing very little capital to move it up. I would be very surprised if a full production company cant 3-4x from 17M. The appetite for studios building out token ecosystems with multiple release potential is large, few currently exist, fewer still with actual product. Despite the opacity they are about as transparent as most project teams in this space. The main issue of concern is the uphill fight with token releases; despite a low cap it probably will not rocket up as much as mcap would imply. Buyers with lower risk appetites might wait and see how things shake out with the new in game token, or mid Q1 2022 after a first wave of major emissions. As an in-game token $BLOOD will not be what investors and speculators pick up, It will merely slow the absorption of $FEAR even more. As with nearly every title but Axie it’s still more about speculation than organic use growth so $FEAR will likely be offset less by $BLOOD than pure emissions. Personally I think a small bag allocated here is best.
Nothing mentioned here is financial advice.